Swift Splits Her Bets: Two Songs, Two Grammy Categories, Two Problems

Published · Updated · 2 min read
For Record and Song of the Year, Taylor Swift’s way may be blocked by Olivia Dean and Raye
Photo: Bru-nO / pixabay

Taylor Swift has won four Album of the Year Grammys — the most of any artist — and zero trophies in Record of the Year or Song of the Year. This cycle she is attacking that gap with a two-track strategy that splits her entries across both categories.

For Record of the Year, Swift is submitting "The Fate of Ophelia," the lead single from her 12th studio album, The Life of a Showgirl. For Song of the Year, she is pushing "I Knew It, I Knew You," a country-leaning cut co-written with Jack Antonoff that appears on the Toy Story 5 soundtrack.

Why two different songs?

The split is not accidental. Record of the Year rewards production, and "The Fate of Ophelia" reunites Swift with Max Martin and Shellback — a producer pedigree built for that voting branch. Song of the Year rewards writing, and "I Knew It, I Knew You" carries the twang that reads as writerly, carries fewer credits to split, and, conveniently, offers an alternative to The Life of a Showgirl tracks whose songwriting drew critic pushback.

The campaign shows a clear read of how the two branches vote. It also concedes the field is not hers.

Who stands in the way?

The act to beat in both categories is currently Olivia Dean. The reigning Best New Artist winner, already a top Album of the Year competitor where she is tied with Olivia Rodrigo, sits at No. 1 in nomination predictions for both Record and Song of the Year on the strength of the single "The Man I Need."

One slot behind her, straddling both song categories in similar fashion, is Raye. The "Where Is My Husband" singer broke through this year with a throwback-twinged hit that held high on the charts and should appeal to the more traditional Grammy voter.

So Swift's competition is running the same two-front campaign — with better early numbers.

What do the odds say?

Gold Derby's combined rankings give Swift her strongest position in Record of the Year, where she sits at No. 3 behind the leaders. Song of the Year is the weaker flank: "I Knew It, I Knew You" ranks No. 7, inside nomination range but trailing contenders including "Choosin' Texas" by Ella Langley and "The Cure" by Olivia Rodrigo.

Users are still adjusting their odds to account for the strategy play, which means that No. 7 could move — in either direction — as the submissions settle.

Does strategy beat momentum?

The mechanics favor Swift's craft here: producer-heavy record, writer-heavy song, no overlap. The race does not. Dean holds the lead positions in both categories, Raye holds the traditionalist lane, and Swift's Song of the Year entry is fighting for a nomination rather than a win.

A nomination in both would mark progress on a career-long blank. Whether the two-song gambit converts into hardware depends on whether Grammy voters reward the campaign or the contender.

Source: Gold Derby

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Daniel Okafor

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Senior reporter covering companies, deals and strategy in awards industry at Awards Review.

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