Mike Leigh stands at No. 6 on Gold Derby's experts-only Best Original Screenplay leaderboard for Tender Loving Care, the film he has said will more than probably be his last. The position puts him within one slot of a sixth nomination in the category — and behind only Jordan Firstman's Club Kid and four other contenders.

The placement is fresh. Tender Loving Care premiered at Telluride, then added stops in Toronto and New York. It later screened at San Sebastián, where it collected four awards, including the Jury Prize for Best Screenplay.

What does the track record say?

Leigh's history in this category runs deep. He broke into the Oscar race with 1996's Secrets & Lies, his seventh feature, which earned five nominations: Best Picture, Best Actress for Brenda Blethyn, Best Supporting Actress for Marianne Jean-Baptiste, plus directing and original screenplay nods for Leigh himself.

He then added four more screenwriting nominations:

• Topsy-Turvy (1999)
• Vera Drake (2004)
• Happy-Go-Lucky (2008)
• Another Year (2010)

One more directing nomination followed in that stretch. Six screenplay bids in total would place him in rare company — though the No. 6 spot means the nomination remains unsecured, and experts' leaderboards have shifted before.

Why is Original Screenplay the path?

The Best Director race is dominated by Christopher Nolan, Los Javis, and Denis Villeneuve. That congestion leaves Original Screenplay as the clearer route for voters who want to honor Leigh again. The category rewards exactly what Leigh's process produces: scripts built through extensive rehearsal and improvisation with his cast, then carefully scripted into final form.

A caveat follows every promise, and this one has two. First, the No. 6 position sits outside the five-nominee line; one contender needs to falter. Second, the film's small scale — a contemporary story about two social workers, played by Kate O'Flynn and Alice Bailey Johnson, and the ailing elderly parents of O'Flynn's character, played by Marion Bailey and Paul Jesson — may limit its overall visibility.

What did Leigh say about his final film?

Leigh has attributed the film's likely finality to his health. He has been diagnosed with myositis, a muscular condition that limits mobility.

"It's quite difficult to move around," Leigh said at a press conference after a San Sebastián screening. "[It's] certainly more difficult than it should be for a filmmaker, and therefore it's more than probable that this film will have to be my last film."

He said "more than probable," not certain. Until Leigh states otherwise, the retirement framing stays his claim, not a settled fact.

What does this change for the cast?

O'Flynn, an Emmy winner for Widow's Bay, also ranks among the Top 10 contenders for Best Supporting Actress. Her television win gives her recognition with voters, but Top 10 status is not a nomination, and the supporting actress field remains unformed.

For Leigh, the practical question is narrower: can a film that premiered at three fall festivals and won four prizes at San Sebastián convert that traction into a sixth screenplay nod? The experts currently say one slot short.