Last year, all four non-English-language Oscar acting nominees missed the SAG cut. This year, Gold Derby's SAG Actor Awards odds predict the same outcome. Only one international contender is on track to break through: Penélope Cruz.

What does the voting gap look like?

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has nearly doubled in size since 2016. Overseas members now make up 22% of its ranks. Its newest class drew 53% of its invitees from 60 countries outside the United States. SAG nominations come from a committee of about 2,500 randomly selected members of an American union.

The numbers tell the story. Since the first SAG Actor Awards in 1995, the Oscars have nominated 29 non-English performances. SAG nominated 13. Since 2013, SAG has nominated only four of 17. Both came from two titles: Minari, an American production, and Netflix's Emilia Pérez.

How deep is this year's international field?

Plenty deep on paper. Renate Reinsve, who lost her SAG slot to Chase Infiniti last year, ranks No. 4 in Best Actress odds for Fjord, Cristian Mungiu's Palme d'Or winner and Romania's International Feature submission. Her co-star Sebastian Stan sits No. 11 in Best Actor.

Sandra Hüller holds two Best Actress entries: No. 6 for Rose (Austria's submission) and No. 8 for Fatherland. Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto, who shared the Cannes best actress prize for All of a Sudden, rank No. 5 in Best Actress and Supporting Actress, respectively. Cruz ranks No. 4 in Supporting Actress for La Bola Negra, Spain's International Feature submission. Her co-star Guitarricadelafuente sits No. 5 in Supporting Actor.

The SAG odds tell a different story.

• Cruz: No. 4 Oscar odds → No. 5 SAG odds (La Bola Negra)
• Reinsve: No. 4 → No. 9
• Okamoto: No. 5 → No. 16
• Hüller (Rose): No. 6 → No. 13
• Hüller (Fatherland): No. 8 → No. 15
• Guitarricadelafuente: No. 5 → No. 9
• Stan: No. 11 → No. 18
• Jeon Do-yeon (Possible Love): No. 14 Oscar odds, zero SAG predictions

Does Netflix's release strategy help?

It has before. Netflix's Emilia Pérez earned SAG nominations for Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, and its ensemble in 2020. Saldaña won. La Bola Negra follows the same playbook. Netflix bought the film out of Cannes, where Los Javis shared the best director prize. It won the Toronto People's Choice Award. It opens theatrically Oct. 16, hits Netflix Dec. 2, and SAG voting begins about two weeks later.

Netflix is not a guarantee. Roma earned two Oscar acting nominations in 2019. SAG gave it nothing.

What is the Cruz complication?

The academy changed its rules this year so actors can be nominated twice in the same category. SAG does not allow it. Hüller can land only one Best Actress nod. Cruz can land only one Supporting Actress nod, for either La Bola Negra or The Invite.

Gold Derby's SAG odds suggest voters may side with the English-language turn. Cruz ranks No. 3 for The Invite, two spots ahead of her La Bola Negra work. If they prefer it, she misses for the Spanish-language film.

The Blunt pattern persists. Emily Blunt, per Gold Derby's SAG odds, holds the final lead actress slot in Disclosure Day, four spots ahead of Reinsve.

Blunt has been SAG's replacement for an international performance at least three times: 2017 over Isabelle Huppert, 2019 in two categories, and the cycle that favored Pamela Anderson over Fernanda Torres.

What are the key dates?

SAG nomination voting runs Dec. 14 through Jan. 3. Nominations drop Jan. 6. The 33rd Actor Awards stream live on Netflix on Feb. 28.

Every actor who won an Oscar for a non-English performance since the SAG Actor Awards began was nominated by the guild first. Cruz is the only one left who can extend that record.