Guitarricadelafuente's "La Nieve," from the film La Bola Negra, ranks first in Gold Derby's combined odds for Best Original Song, ahead of songs from Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut and Taylor Swift's Toy Story 5. Gold Derby opened the category in its Oscars prediction center last week, and the first batch of forecasts already shows where the race tilts.

The headline result: Swift, the most famous musical artist in the running, sits safely inside nomination range but does not lead. Her song from Toy Story 5, "I Knew It, I Knew You," holds third place in the combined odds.

Who leads, and why the top five looks the way it does?

Guitarricadelafuente, who co-wrote "La Nieve" with Raül Refree, tops the chart. The nomination would carry extra weight: Gold Derby currently places him fifth among Best Supporting Actor contenders, behind Edward Norton in The Invite. One song nomination would take his possible total to two.

Jesse Eisenberg holds second place. He already competes for writing and directing his third feature, The Debut, and the standout number from that film, "This City May Have Chewed Me Up," puts a song citation within reach.

Swift runs third with "I Knew It, I Knew You." She is campaigning for upcoming Grammy nominations at the same time, and she will perform at the Academy Museum Gala — a scheduling choice that signals she intends to work for the Oscar nominations rather than wait for them.

Diane Warren occupies the fourth slot, the category's near-permanent fixture, with "By Any Means" from the film of the same name. The Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Mark Wahlberg picture underperformed at the box office, but it remains the higher-profile of her two eligible vehicles. The other, Maserati: The Brothers, carries the Andrea Bocelli and Jennifer Hudson duet "One Right Here" but lacks a studio release.

The fifth position belongs to "When I'm Home" from The Odyssey. If the song makes the cut, it adds to what could become a record-breaking nomination haul for Christopher Nolan's film — though Nolan himself will not number among the songwriters. His credit was removed ahead of submission, leaving Travis Scott, James Blake and composer Ludwig Göransson on the entry.

What does the early snapshot change?

Three mechanics stand out.

• Fame does not equal front-runner status. Swift's promotional machine runs at full steam, yet the combined odds rank two less famous contenders above her.
• Multi-category overlap shapes the board. Guitarricadelafuente and Eisenberg each threaten nominations in other branches, which can lift a song's visibility across the ballot.
• Credit housekeeping matters. The Odyssey submission stripped Nolan's name before the paperwork went in, so a nominated song would credit Scott, Blake and Göransson only.

These are the first predictions, not votes. The nomination landscape will shift as more prediction center users weigh in and as the campaigns behind "La Nieve" and "I Knew It, I Knew You" test whether early odds hold.

For now, the category belongs to a Spanish singer-songwriter and his co-writer, not the biggest name on the list.