Hollywood Music in Media Awards Nominations Signal the Oscar Music Races

The Hollywood Music in Media Awards nominations landed yesterday, and the shortlists — released ahead of a Nov. 18 ceremony — offer the season's first measurable read on two Oscar categories that could turn into competitive, A-list affairs: Best Original Song and Best Original Score.

With several of music's biggest stars chasing Oscar consideration, awards watchers are pulling every thread the HMMA shortlists provide. Some threads hold. Others fray on inspection.

What does Taylor Swift's nomination change?

Swift's "I Knew It, I Knew You," from the fifth entry in Pixar's Toy Story series, is widely assumed to land an Oscar nomination in Best Original Song. Her profile and the franchise's history with the category make that the safe baseline.

The HMMA nomination adds one concrete data point: Swift will probably arrive on Oscar night with precursor wins already banked for the track. Crucially, she competes at the HMMA in Best Song — Animated Film, a genre-splitting category that keeps her away from most of her presumptive Oscar rivals. That separation is not incidental. Genre differentiators make it easier to accumulate precursor trophies, and stacked trophies shape narrative, if not votes.

The caveat: an animated-film win against a thinner field proves less than a head-to-head victory would. Nobody should read it as a verdict on the Oscar race itself.

Which Diane Warren song is actually in the race?

Diane Warren, the 17-time Oscar bridesmaid, landed two eligible songs this season — "By Any Means" from By Any Means and "One Right Here" from Maserati: The Brothers. Earlier state-of-the-race assessments assumed Warren would show up somewhere; which film would carry her song was the open question.

The HMMA answered it, at least provisionally. The nomination went to "One Right Here." In the proverbial race between the two tracks, that puts the Maserati: The Brothers song in the lead.

One precursor nomination settles little on its own. But when a branch that celebrates craft picks one of two options, rival campaigns now know which track to target and which to quietly deprioritize.

Is Phoebe Bridgers' song stronger than the odds say?

Phoebe Bridgers crossed into film this year with an acting role in Primetime and contributed the song "On Video" to its soundtrack. She is already in the conversation for an Album of the Year nomination at the Grammys.

The Gold Derby odds tell a lukewarm story: "On Video" has performed respectably but sits at No. 15, unable to crack the Top 10.

The HMMA shortlist disagrees. "On Video" made the cut in the Independent category, which suggests there may be more heat behind Bridgers and the song than the current odds reflect.

What does this change for Oscar handicappers? Possibly nothing yet — No. 15 with a precursor nod is a soft signal, not a surge. But it flags a song the consensus models may be underrating, and it gives the campaign a concrete talking point through November.

Why did Digger's score miss?

Digger absorbed jeers from critics and general audiences — fairly or unfairly, depending on whom you ask. Its defenders' common refrain held that the film's craftsmanship could keep it in the Oscars conversation even as bigger nominations, such as Best Picture, slipped out of reach.

The music branch was supposed to be where that argument survived. Cosmo Sheldrake's score is still hanging on in 13th place in the Oscar-tracking race.

The HMMA was not persuaded. Digger failed to secure a nomination despite the HMMA's genre categories splitting the field and creating more slots and more opportunity. A score that cannot make an expanded shortlist while polling 13th for the Oscars is a score whose resilience now rests on hope rather than evidence.

The mechanics, and the limits

The HMMA works as an Oscar indicator for a simple structural reason: it votes early, it splits by genre, and it recognizes craft below the line. That combination surfaces contenders before the larger precursors weigh in.

Its limits are equally structural. Genre categories thin the competition, and an early voting body is not the Academy's music branch. Swift's animated-film nod, Warren's head-to-head win, Bridgers' independent-film shortlist and Sheldrake's miss all carry information — none of them carries a verdict.

The Nov. 18 ceremony will convert these nominations into wins or losses. Until then, the shortlists move assumptions at the margins, and the Oscar races in Best Original Song and Score remain exactly what they were: crowded, star-heavy, and unresolved.