Ippolito, Turturro and Jackson Target Final Golden Globes Drama Slot

By Amara Osei

Matt Damon for The Odyssey and Andrew Scott for Elsinore share Gold Derby’s Best Drama Actor lead at 97.6%, leaving one of six places in a tight three-way fight.

Gold Derby projects Damon, Scott, Robert Pattinson for Primetime, Pedro Pascal for Behemoth!, and Sebastian Stan for Fjord as five nominees. Anthony Ippolito, John Turturro and Jaafar Jackson rank below them, with all three odds on the upswing.

Where does Gold Derby place the field?

• Matt Damon (The Odyssey) — 97.6%, No. 1
• Andrew Scott (Elsinore) — 97.6%, No. 2
• Robert Pattinson (Primetime) — 93.2%, No. 3
• Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) — 69.0%, No. 4
• Sebastian Stan (Fjord) — 60.8%, No. 5
• Anthony Ippolito (I Play Rocky) — 58.4%, No. 6
• John Turturro (The Only Living Pickkocket in New York) — 32.1%, No. 7
• Jaafar Jackson (Michael) — 13.6%, No. 8

Gold Derby’s percentages represent its forecast, not a disclosed count of Golden Globes voters. The table gives no sample size, modeling inputs or raw returns, so readers should treat the gaps as estimates rather than settled results.

What does this change for the sixth slot?

The category has six places, and the table fills five on paper. The remaining projected place therefore turns on a cutoff rather than a head-to-head contest. These individual nomination chances do not sum to 100; each estimates whether an actor can clear the cutoff.

The table places Ippolito 2.4 percentage points behind Stan, the projected No. 5, and 26.3 points ahead of Turturro. Jackson trails Ippolito by 44.8 points. Those are snapshot gaps, not margins a nominee must overcome.

• Anthony Ippolito holds sixth at 58.4%, up 11 percentage points in five days. He plays a young Sylvester Stallone trying to get his screenplay made in I Play Rocky. Positive buzz has accompanied festival play. His Breakthrough Award at the SCAD Savannah Film Festival arrives Oct. 29; the film opens in limited release Nov. 6 and worldwide Nov. 20.
• John Turturro sits seventh at 32.1%, up three percentage points. His acclaimed indie, The Only Living Pickkocket in New York, has entered limited release. The current forecast supplies no release date, screening total or other measure of audience reach.
• Jaafar Jackson ranks eighth at 13.6%, up 10 percentage points. Rave reviews have followed his transformative portrayal of his uncle, the King of Pop, in Michael. The film had to compete in drama after trying to submit for comedy/musical, moving Jackson into the same race as the five actors above him.

How do timing and category placement affect the chase?

The Oct. 29 award and Nov. 6 limited opening for I Play Rocky both precede the Nov. 16 start of voting; its Nov. 20 worldwide release follows the opening of the ballot. That sequence supplies three dated milestones around the voting window, but no attendance, gross or voter-response data links them to Ippolito’s 11-point rise.

Turturro’s film is already in limited release, although no date appears. Jackson’s switch from an attempted comedy/musical submission to drama is the clearer rule-driven change: it moves him into the same category as Damon, Scott, Pattinson, Pascal and Stan rather than leaving him outside their race.

What do the odds prove?

Gold Derby’s percentages are forecasts, not disclosed counts from Golden Globes voters. The table provides no sample size, model inputs, raw returns or official voter breakdown, so it cannot establish which actors the ballots support.

Corporate ownership adds context: Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions belongs to Penske Media Eldridge, a joint venture between Eldridge and Penske Media Corporation, and Penske Media Corporation owns Gold Derby. That chain identifies the owner of the forecast and the producer of the awards, but it does not make the odds official results.

When will the field be decided?

Voting for the 2027 Golden Globe nominations begins Nov. 16, and the final nominees will be unveiled Dec. 7. Until then, the published order remains provisional despite three rising challengers.

On current numbers, Ippolito holds the strongest position for the final slot, but his 58.4% forecast leaves the race unresolved until Dec. 7.