Tao Okamoto's odds among Gold Derby's expert prognosticators jumped 17%, and the move carries her from outside the Top 5 to No. 5 in the 2027 Oscar race for Best Supporting Actress. The climb follows Ryusuke Hamaguchi's All of a Sudden through Telluride, Toronto and New York, after a Cannes premiere where Okamoto shared the Best Actress prize with co-star Virginie Efira.

Where does the Oscar race now stand?

The numbers show how far Okamoto has come. Her 57.7% figure sits behind two The Odyssey performances — Samantha Morton at 100.0% and Anne Hathaway at 96.2% — and behind two Penelope Cruz entries, The Invite at 69.2% and La Bola Negra at 61.5%.

The rest of the field trails at a distance:

• Kate O'Flynn, Tender Loving Care — 26.9%
• Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine — 23.1%
• Olivia Colman, Elsinore — 15.4%
• Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary — 15.4%
• Merritt Wever, Primetime — 15.4%

A 26.9% gap separates Okamoto from O'Flynn at No. 6, which measures how firmly the Top 5 has formed. The festival campaign did the work.

What does the Golden Globes picture look like?

Okamoto holds the same No. 5 position in the Globes race for Best Film Supporting Actress, at 75.0%. Hathaway and Morton tie at 100.0%, Colman ranks third at 87.5%, and Cruz sits at 75.0% for The Invite, with La Bola Negra also at 75.0%.

Strategists close to the Globes have told Gold Derby to expect international actors to be well-represented in the nominations. Okamoto and Efira — who ranks third among Best Film Drama Actress contenders — fit that prediction exactly. The Globes field, unlike the Oscar list, places Colman ahead of both Cruz entries.

Why does this film keep gaining?

The film runs 197 minutes and casts Efira as the director of a Parisian nursing home and Okamoto as a visiting theater director diagnosed with terminal cancer. The two women build a friendship that crosses cultural and language barriers.

Two structural factors drive the campaign. First, the calendar: All of a Sudden has further festival playdates before it reaches theaters on Nov. 25, which keeps the film in front of voters. Second, the precedent: Hamaguchi's 2021 Drive My Car earned nominations for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, and won Best International Feature.

The film could repeat in that category as Japan's official submission for 2027. If Efira and Okamoto secure Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress nominations, they become the first actors Hamaguchi has steered into the Oscar race.

One note on ownership: Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions belongs to Penske Media Eldridge, a joint venture between Eldridge and Penske Media Corporation, which owns Gold Derby.

A 17% odds jump, a No. 5 hold in two races and a Nov. 25 release date now define Okamoto's campaign.