Sandra Hüller's Rose has climbed to No. 6 on Gold Derby's experts-only Best Actress leaderboard for the 2027 Oscars, overtaking her other contender, Fatherland, which has fallen to No. 8. The shift happened before Rose opens in theaters on Dec. 11.

Until recently, Fatherland ranked ahead of Rose among expert prognosticators. That order has now reversed. Rose posted double-digit gains to reach the No. 6 spot at 39.1% odds, while Fatherland dropped by double digits to No. 8 at 30.4%. Both films screened at the New York Film Festival after premiering at Cannes (Fatherland) and Berlin (Rose).

The current Oscar top five reads:

• Julianne Moore, The Debut — 100.0%
• Olivia Wilde, The Invite — 91.3%
• Inde Navarrette, Obsession — 69.6%
• Renate Reinsve, Fjord — 52.2%
• Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden — 43.5%

Rose still needs a Top 5 slot for a nomination, and Hüller sits at 39.1% — behind Efira's 43.5% and ahead of her own Fatherland entry at 30.4%. That structure matters: she is the only actress listed twice in the top ten, which splits her own support. A nomination would be her second in the category, after the 2024 ceremony recognized Anatomy of a Fall.

What does the switch change at the Golden Globes?

More, and faster. In the Best Drama Actress race at the 2027 Golden Globes, Hüller's Rose performance now ranks No. 1 among experts. Fatherland has declined roughly 25% and sits outside the Top 10 entirely.

The Globes field she leads includes:

• Renate Reinsve, Fjord — 88.9%
• Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden — 77.8%
• Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann — 66.7%
• Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day — 55.6%

The category split does part of the work here. Oscar rivals Julianne Moore (The Debut) and Inde Navarrette (Obsession) compete in Comedy/Musical at the Globes, which thins the Drama field Hüller now tops. The 100.0% figure reflects expert consensus, not votes — no ballot has been cast.

Why Rose gained ground

Two concrete advantages separate the films. First, Hüller has already won for Rose: the Silver Bear for Best Lead Performance at Berlin, for playing a soldier who survives the Thirty Years' War and passes as a man to rejoin civilian society. Second, the role is a larger showcase than Fatherland, a Cold War-era two-hander pairing her with Hanns Zischler as author Thomas Mann and his daughter Erika.

Hüller has addressed the character's gender identity directly. Speaking with Gold Derby, she said: "She says in the film that it's not her goal to be a man. I think she's a woman, and that she identifies as a woman. She's putting on a disguise in order to survive in a society that's really dangerous for women to live in, especially during times of war. It felt like the only choice she had."

What remains unresolved

The gap between the two races is the caveat. Rose leads the Globes outright but trails five Oscar contenders by 4.4 percentage points at minimum. Expert leaderboards have shifted before — Fatherland itself was ranked higher weeks ago. The Dec. 11 theatrical release, plus whatever campaign A24-scale voters respond to, will test whether the Berlin trophy and the NYFILM Festival exposure convert into nomination votes.

For now, the numbers say one thing clearly: experts consider Rose the vehicle, and Fatherland the backup.