Seyfried Climbs Into Oscar Contention With Holmes Documentary

By Daniel Okafor

Gold Derby’s combined odds put Amanda Seyfried sixth in the Best Supporting Actress race at 45.4%, up 13 percentage points overall and 25 points among its experts, just one place outside the predicted nomination range.

The climb for You Can See Everything has tracked the documentary’s growing buzz and record-setting box office. Seyfried has a pivotal role and won an Emmy for Elizabeth Holmes, the fallen Theranos founder. She plays both Holmes and herself, putting her within reach of an Oscar nomination. At 45.4%, the projection remains a prediction, not a result.

No performer has received an acting Oscar nomination for appearing in a documentary. Gold Derby has confirmed Seyfried’s eligibility, leaving her within reach of a first; the Academy will announce nominations on Jan. 21.

Where does Seyfried stand?

The current Gold Derby leaderboard for Best Supporting Actress reads:

Rank	Contender	Film	Odds
1	Anne Hathaway	The Odyssey	91.1%
2	Samantha Morton	The Odyssey	84.3%
3	Penélope Cruz	La Bola Negra	66.8%
4	Tao Okamoto	All of a Sudden	66.4%
5	Penélope Cruz	The Invite	59.5%
6	Amanda Seyfried	You Can See Everything	45.4%

At 45.4%, Seyfried’s combined projection offers about 45 chances in 100 and trails Penélope Cruz’s fifth-place 59.5% by 14.1 percentage points. The middle also looks unusually compressed: Cruz ranks third for La Bola Negra at 66.8%, only 0.4 points ahead of Tao Okamoto at 66.4%.

Cruz occupies two of the five leading entries, for La Bola Negra and The Invite. This year marks the first time the Academy has allowed an actor to receive multiple nominations in the same category for different performances, giving Cruz two distinct routes into the Best Supporting Actress field.

Because Cruz appears twice, Gold Derby’s five leading entries contain four distinct performers. Seyfried remains one entry below its five-place threshold.

What does Seyfried’s eligibility change?

An acting nomination for Seyfried would make her the first performer so recognized for a documentary, according to Gold Derby’s account of the category’s history. Her sixth-place position comes without the machinery of a conventional campaign: A24 is still trying to keep the role a surprise, and Seyfried has not begun a formal awards push for the film.

At the recent Academy Museum Gala, Seyfried gave a few cryptic red-carpet interviews in which she talked about her emus. On a recent social-media post featuring an interview in which Timothy Simons raved about her performance, she commented: “TIMOTHY 😍😍.” Publicity, so far, has leaned on emus and emoji.

How does the documentary use Seyfried?

Co-directed by Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, You Can See Everything chronicles Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes’s final weeks at home with her life partner, Billy Evans, and their two young children before she heads to prison to serve her sentence for defrauding investors.

About halfway through the documentary, Fielder loses access to the imprisoned Holmes and recruits Seyfried to help reenact scenes as her. Seyfried channels Holmes unerringly while also engaging Evans as herself, serving as a de facto stand-in for the audience.

Slate called Seyfried’s work “remarkable,” Vulture called it “deft, haunting,” and Variety described it as “her most compelling screen work ever.” The verdict is favorable; the forecast is not. Seyfried remains outside Gold Derby’s five leading positions and without a formal campaign.

If Jan. 21 produces that first, Seyfried will have reached an acting nomination through a performance that splits its attention between Holmes and the woman playing her. The odds still favor the five entries above her. Preview confidence has its limits.