Rose Blooms in Best International Film Odds as Hüller Eyes Multi-Nomination Year

The Academy will cut the Best International Film field to 15 titles on Dec. 15, and Gold Derby's expert prognosticators expect Sandra Hüller's Rose to survive the winnowing. Their confidence is qualified. The film sits fifth among contenders, at 50.0% odds for a nomination — a frontrunner's neighbors it is not.

Where does Rose actually stand?

The international race has a clear hierarchy. La Bola Negra leads at 100.0%, followed by All of a Sudden at 95.0%, then Fjord and Possible Love, both at 90.0%. Rose, at 50.0%, occupies the same bracket as Minotaur (40.0%) and Fatherland (25.0%) — the coin-flip tier, where a shortlist berth depends on which way branch voters lean. The experts' Top 15 also lists Woman Unknown at 5.0%, with Coward, Everytime, Filipiñana, Gugu's World, Elephants in the Fog, On the Road and The Dreamed Adventure all unrated. Six of the fifteen have no measurable odds at all. That is how deep the uncertainty runs below the top seven.

What about Hüller herself?

Her Best Actress odds tell a stronger story. She ranks third at 73.9%, behind Julianne Moore for The Debut (100.0%) and Olivia Wilde for The Invite (87.0%). The rest of the leaderboard: Inde Navarrette, Obsession, 69.6%; Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden, 52.2%; Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann, 39.1%; Renate Reinsve, Fjord, 34.8%; and a three-way logjam at 8.7% for Jeon Do-yeon (Possible Love), Olivia Colman (Wicker) and Marion Bailey (Tender Loving Care).

This would be a repeat visit. Hüller was a Best Actress nominee for 2023's Anatomy of a Fall, and she may arrive this season in a year that could set a record for international film actresses honored in the category.

Why could she land two or three nominations?

Rule mechanics matter here. Recent Oscar rules changes now allow actors to be nominated in the same category for multiple films. Hüller, cannily, diverted her role in Fatherland to the Supporting Actress race, keeping her Rose lead in Best Actress. She also campaigns on two other supporting contenders: Project Hail Mary, a box-office hit, and Digger, a box-office disappointment. If Fatherland and Project Hail Mary both land with voters, she could collect two or even three nominations across the two categories. A Digger nod is, in Gold Derby's phrasing, less likely — though the source notes she is sure to have Mandy Patinkin's vote.

What does the character offer voters?

Hüller's role in Rose gives campaign speechwriters plenty to work with. She told Gold Derby earlier this year about her alter ego: "She's putting on a disguise in order to survive in a society that's really dangerous for woman to live in, especially during times of war. It felt like the only choice she had." She added: "The things that happen to her are very cruel, but I think of her as someone who's able to protect something inside of her so she's not affected by those things." A war-survival performance, a disguise motif, a previous nomination. The narrative writes itself.

And the Golden Globes?

The 2027 Golden Globes' Best Non-English Film category offers a friendlier structure. With six available slots, Rose and Fatherland sit deadlocked at 75.0% each on the experts-only leaderboard — meaning both could make the cut simultaneously, a double nomination the Oscars' single-category math makes harder. The Globes field runs: La Bola Negra, Fjord and Possible Love all at 100.0%; All of a Sudden at 87.5%; then the tied pair; Minotaur at 37.5%; Woman Unknown at 12.5%; and Coward and Everytime unrated.

One disclosure the trade press should pass along: Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions is owned by Penske Media Eldridge, a joint venture between Eldridge and Penske Media Corporation, which owns Gold Derby. The odds and the broadcaster share a parent. Readers may weigh that as they like.

The verdict

Dec. 15 settles the shortlist question. Until then, Rose is a fifth-place film with a third-place actress and a genuine shot at multiple personal nominations — decent odds for a movie about someone whose survival depended on nobody noticing her.