Category Switches Reshape Golden Globes Race: 'Project Hail Mary' Up 37%

Ryan Gosling is up 40% in one week. That's the single biggest number in Gold Derby's 2027 Golden Globes predictions right now, and it exists for one reason: his space-set film Project Hail Mary declared itself a comedy/musical rather than a drama, dodging a head-on collision with The Odyssey, the perceived drama front-runner. After weeks of category confusion and last-minute switches, the prediction center has settled — and nearly every film that moved is now climbing by double digits.

How did the category swaps shake out?

Project Hail Mary, Artificial, and I Play Rocky all recently entered the comedy/musical race, apparently to avoid direct competition with The Odyssey on the drama side. The counterexample is telling. Club Kid, a lighter-hearted title, didn't shy away from the front-runner and submitted as a drama instead. Since these moves landed, every one of these contenders is up by double digits in the combined odds.

The percentage gains tell the story plainly:

• Project Hail Mary: up 37% in combined nominations odds over the past week
• Artificial: up 23%
• I Play Rocky: up 9%
• Club Kid: up 8%, now inside the Top 10 for Best Film Drama

What does the comedy/musical picture look like now?

It's one of the tightest comedy/musical races in recent memory. The Invite and Wild Horse Nine sit tied for the top spot in combined nominations odds. The Debut, Obsession, and Digger are also projected to receive nominations, alongside Project Hail Mary and its surging odds.

The lead-actress comedy/musical contest is just as crowded. Olivia Wilde (The Invite) and Julianne Moore (The Debut) hold the front positions, with Inde Navarrette (Obsession) nipping at their heels. Navarrette's horror flick pulled off its own surprise designation, submitting as a comedy/musical rather than a drama — proof that the strategy isn't limited to star vehicles. The forecasted lineup also includes Zendaya (The Drama), Olivia Colman (Wicker), and Meryl Streep (The Devil's Wear Prada 2's sequel, The Devil Wears Prada 2).

Who's climbing in the actor races?

Gosling's 40% leap has him swiftly closing on the Top 3 in lead actor comedy/musical: John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), Seth Rogen (The Invite), and Tom Cruise (Digger). Robert Pattinson (The Drama) and Brad Pitt (The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth) hold 5th and 6th, but Anthony Ippolito (I Play Rocky) — up 22% from a week ago — could soon usurp them. Don't count out Yura Borisov either; he's up 11% for Artificial. His co-star Andrew Garfield is up 10% over in the Best Film Supporting Actor lineup.

On the drama side, the biggest change is a new entrant: Zendaya, now campaigning in lead for Dune: Part Three after being snubbed in supporting for the first two sci-fi films. She has climbed 6% this week and is closing in on the six category leaders: Sandra Hüller (Rose), Virginie Efira (All of a Sudden), Renate Reinsve (Fjord), Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann), Emily Blunt (Disclosure Day), and Jeon Do-yeon (Possible Love).

Can anyone catch The Odyssey?

Best Film Drama still has The Odyssey out front, but La Bola Negra has been gaining ever since it won the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival — the two are currently tied for the No. 1 spot. Dune: Part Three, All of a Sudden, Fjord, and Elsinore round out the projected six-film field, with Club Kid rising on the outside after its swap.

Best Actor Drama keeps its Top 5 intact — Andrew Scott (Elsinore), Matt Damon (The Odyssey), Robert Pattinson (Primetime), Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!), and Sebastian Stan (Fjord). The sixth spot is wide open. Three contenders have all risen by double digits this week and are fighting to break in:

• John Turturro, up 13% for The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
• Jaafar Jackson, up 13% for Michael
• Jordan Firstman, up 12% for Club Kid

The category designation, in other words, is doing more work than any campaign ad right now. The 2027 Golden Globe nominations in film and television will be announced on Dec. 7, and the odds boards will keep moving until they do.