Project Hail Mary launched its official Oscar campaign this week with a $690 million global box-office haul — roughly $350 million domestic and $340 million international — anchoring Amazon MGM's push to repeat last year's Sinners-style awards pivot. Ryan Coogler's vampire film drew a record 16 nominations after dominating the first quarter at the multiplex, a strategy PHM now mirrors.

On Monday in Manhattan, directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, joined by actor-puppeteer John Ortiz (Rocky), fronted a cozy lunch FYC event. The biggest name was missing: star Ryan Gosling stayed away, and Amazon blamed unspecified "scheduling conflicts" after Gosling canceled a separate appearance at the 2026 American Cinematheque Gala. The organization postponed its annual ceremony to 2027 with a new honoree.

How does the campaign map across categories?

Amazon is positioning Project Hail Mary as an across-the-board contender. Current Top 10 placements:

• Best Picture
• Best Adapted Screenplay
• Best Sound
• Best Score
• Best Visual Effects
• Best Actor

Races where the film can still shore up its case:

• Best Director
• Best Supporting Actor (Ortiz pitching as the first-ever puppet character)
• Best Casting
• Best Costume Design
• Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Ortiz, repeatedly at the podium, thanked Lord and Miller for fostering a creative atmosphere that made every contributor feel valued. Gosling's Best Actor standing also needs reinforcement; potential first-time nominees including Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) and John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York) are nipping at his heels.

What did Neon's Artificial do to The Social Reckoning?

Artificial, the Luca Guadagnino OpenAI drama Amazon MGM spiked mid-year before unloading to Neon, had its world premiere Monday at the 2026 New York Film Festival, with a CAA screening added the same afternoon for L.A. pundits. Aaron Sorkin's The Social Reckoning held coast-to-coast FYC screenings the same day.

Gold Derby's prediction centers tell the story: Artificial's odds are climbing, Reckoning's have dropped across nearly every category. Jeremy Strong's Mark Zuckerberg gets less screen time here than Jesse Eisenberg did in 2010's The Social Network. Garfield entered Best Supporting Actor at No. 7 and rising.

"Guadagnino just ate Sorkin's lunch," one critic told us after the credits rolled at the NYFF premiere, where Garfield's post-screening Q&A drew applause. Sorkinisms landed in Reckoning, but consensus held that Guadagnino's film will be the "Big Bad Tech" drama carrying nominations momentum.

Can a documentary actually win Best Picture?

A24 is making the case with You Can See Everything. Nathan Fielder's and Lance Oppenheim's portrait of Elizabeth Holmes premiered Tuesday at the Academy Museum before a guest list that included Elizabeth Olsen, Aziz Ansari, Adam Scott, Hannah Einbinder, Patrick Ball, Adam McKay, Gus Van Sant, and Zach Cregger.

"I know you had a choice between this and The Beast tonight, so we appreciate you choosing us," Fielder told the crowd, referencing the Samuel L. Jackson vehicle premiering simultaneously at the same museum.

A24 has a limited theatrical release opening next weekend, with reports of sold-out Los Angeles and New York screenings already rolling in. The film sits at No. 17 on the Best Picture leaderboard — modest placement, but historically uncharted territory. No documentary has ever qualified for the top Oscar; a contingent of expert prognosticators wants A24 to be the first.

Bill Hader moderated a post-screening Q&A whose mere introduction drew applause from pockets of the room. Three hours later, "It's a f---ing masterpiece," one recent Emmy nominee said on the way out.

If the buzz holds past the New York–L.A. bubble and beyond the Fielder faithful, Oppenheim and Fielder have a clear view to that history-making nomination.