'You Can See Everything' Jumps to No. 8 in Best Picture Odds

By Rebecca Stone

Seventy percent of the opening-weekend audience for You Can See Everything was under 35, and that single number has rearranged the Best Picture race. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim's documentary-narrative hybrid has catapulted to No. 8 in Gold Derby's Oscar predictions since its sold-out opening, while three films aimed squarely at older voters — The Social Reckoning, Klara and the Sun, and Digger — have slid into early retirement.

The theater lines tell the story. At an Upstate Films location in an outer New York county, one eager young ticket holder pitched the film to an older companion with a simple stat: "I'm so excited to see this movie — it has one of the highest scores ever on Letterboxd" (the review app favored by Gen Z and younger millennials). The companion's response was noncommittal. That generational shrug is now the central question of the season.

How Obsession wrote the playbook

Stop us if you've heard this one: an inexpensive movie for a young audience opens strong, then explodes in weekend two as social media coverage floods theaters and fan campaigns anoint it an awards player. That's the You Can See Everything cycle — and it's the same one that played out in May with Curry Barker's horror hit Obsession.

Focus Features acquired the "Monkey's Paw" variant at the 2025 Toronto International Film Festival without Oscar ambitions, but days after release, posts swamping social platforms called breakout star Inde Navarrette a Best Actress contender. Gold Derby was among the first to ask her about it; she called the response "extremely validating" and said a nomination would be "a dream." She has sat in the Top 5 since the predictions center launched over the summer.

Focus isn't easing off. The label has hosted FYC (for your consideration) events on both coasts through spooky season, including this week's gathering at L.A.'s Little Toni's Restaurant — the site of the film's "No, no, no" scene — where Navarrette and Barker reunited with co-stars Michael Johnston, Cooper Tomlinson, and Andy Richter. Cinematographer Taylor Clemons, told his film was in Oscar contention, said: "We had no idea it would turn into this." Johnston, for his part, isn't surprised by the Letterboxd records: "He's brilliant. I've seen every episode of Nathan for You multiple times."

What does the youth vote change?

Right now Obsession sits at on-the-bubble No. 11 in Best Picture odds, with a clear path back into the Top 10 if wavering contenders I Play Rocky and Artificial stumble. Some avid fans go further, arguing You Can See Everything could knock off Matt Damon's Odysseus in Christopher Nolan's front-runner, The Odyssey. As Variety's Owen Gleiberman framed it, voters might back the Fielder joint just to avoid seeming old.

Analyst and test-screening maestro Kevin Goetz urges caution. "I think it's too simple to say older Academy members vote for films because they're afraid of seeming irrelevant," he said. "They're also part of a creative community, and of course they want to understand what's connecting with audiences and why." His broader read: younger audiences "don't want to just see a movie — they want to be a part of what everyone is talking and posting about," and they now help decide cultural relevance "in real time, sometimes before the awards conversation catches up." Still, he notes, "getting someone to watch a movie is different from getting them to vote for it."

The casualties are instructive. Sony hid Klara and the Sun — Taika Waititi's Jenna Ortega-starring adaptation of Kazuo Ishiguro's novel — from festivals entirely, skipping even Toronto, and the London Film Festival premiere drew withering notices. The Social Reckoning got week-of-release press screenings; Warner Bros. sat on Tom Cruise's Digger just as long. All three came from older Oscar-winning auteurs, and none roused their target demo. Digger came closest to a social-media comeback — Anne Hathaway, Mandy Patinkin, Guillermo del Toro, and Neil Young posted enthusiastic reactions after its Oct. 2 release — but You Can See Everything has now officially outgrossed it in the U.S. Cruise's AFI Life Achievement Award announcement signals he's still digging, with craft categories and Best Actor in play.

Who's left to challenge?

Of the remaining unseen contenders, only Denis Villeneuve's Dune: Part Three — pairing Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, and Robert Pattinson — seems built to electrify Gen Z, and Warner Bros. likes its odds on track record alone. Netflix's The Mosquito Bowl premiered Thursday at the AFI Fest with Peter Berg, Nicholas Galitzine, and a post-party Billy Zane sighting, banking on older viewers à la The Boys in the Boat.

Then there's Cliff Booth. David Fincher's film, which won Brad Pitt a supporting statuette's worth of pedigree via its 10-nomination predecessor, hits Imax over Thanksgiving but hasn't screened publicly. Reports of behind-the-scenes troubles have ticked up since Netflix exec Dan Lin's departure. Pitt sits at No. 16 in Best Actor; Fincher at No. 13 in Best Director.

Goetz gets the last word: "The Academy has traditionally helped define what great filmmaking is, while younger audiences are more and more making their own case for what deserves recognition. Sometimes the two agree — and sometimes they don't."