Feinberg Forecast Update: 'You Can See Everything' Breaks Records, Netflix Reroutes

By Amara Osei

A 4.71 Letterboxd rating — a platform record — and a $15 million opening weekend put A24's "You Can See Everything" at the center of Scott Feinberg's mid-October Oscar forecast, published Tuesday by The Hollywood Reporter. The Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim Elizabeth Holmes documentary now sits third on Feinberg's best-picture chart, behind "The Odyssey" and "La Bola Negra." Whether a documentary can convert festival heat into above-the-line nominations remains unproven; Feinberg himself flags the question without answering it.

What did the numbers actually show?

The doc opened in fewer than 1,000 locations and grossed $15 million — the biggest debut from that theater count since 2006's "Borat" and the largest documentary debut since 2004's "Fahrenheit 9/11." It holds a 99 percent critics score on Rotten Tomatoes. Academy members, according to Feinberg, turned out for the official Los Angeles screening on Oct. 18 in record numbers for a documentary.

Voter testimony is on the record. Documentary branch member Ryan White called the film "brilliant" on social media; branch colleague AJ Schnack called it "incredible." Travon Free, of the short films/feature animation branch, went further: "one of the best things I've ever seen in my life." Enthusiasm from members, however, is not a nomination count.

How is Netflix handling 'La Bola Negra' amid layoffs?

Netflix released the Spanish-language epic in four theaters in Los Angeles and New York, reporting box office publicly for the first time in company history. It posted a $69,375 per-screen average — second-highest ever for a non-English-language film, behind only 2019's "Parasite." The film gets a 47-day exclusive theatrical window, the longest in Netflix's history.

This rollout proceeds during a turbulent stretch: layoffs hit roughly 6 percent of the workforce, including chief content officer Bela Bajaria, film chief Dan Lin, and Kelly Caton, head of series awards strategy and publicity since 2019. The awards team, Feinberg reports, is pressing ahead. A strategy chief's departure mid-campaign is rarely a neutral event; what it changes for the film's prospects, Netflix has not said.

What does the race look like now?

Feinberg's best-picture frontrunners, in order: "The Odyssey" (Universal), "La Bola Negra," "You Can See Everything," "Elsinore" and "Wild Horse Nine." Four major titles remain unseen or under embargo: "Dune: Part Three," "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth," "Madden" and "Werwulf." The forecast explicitly does not rank unseen films.

The charts also log classification moves Feinberg broke exclusively: "Obsession" will compete at the Golden Globes as a musical/comedy rather than a drama, and lead-versus-supporting determinations landed for "La Bola Negra," "Paper Tiger," "Possible Love" and "Tender Loving Care."

How are campaigns reaching voters?

The season's mechanics are running at full throttle. Academy receptions in Toronto (Sept. 11), Los Angeles (Sept. 17), the Bay Area (Sept. 23) and London (Oct. 10) drew new members — and, as plus-ones, hopefuls including Andrew Garfield, Ruth Madeley, Carrie Coon and Billie Jean King. Feinberg calls the tactic "a somewhat cynical but effective way" into voter rooms. The Academy Museum Gala on Saturday raised $14 million, honored Colman Domingo and Charlize Theron, and featured a four-song set from Taylor Swift — whose "I Knew It, I Knew You," co-written with Jack Antonoff for "Toy Story 5," tops Feinberg's original song chart.

What does all this change for the race? A record-breaking documentary and a Netflix campaign running through layoffs have unsettled two assumptions at once — but with four unseen heavyweights still under embargo, mid-October remains a provisional map, not a verdict.