An 82% Shot and One Ballot: How 'You Can See Everything' Eyes Best Picture

Gold Derby currently gives A24's "You Can See Everything" an 82% chance of a Best Picture nomination — a striking number for a film that, by rule, has never had a documentary predecessor in the category. Not one documentary has been nominated for Best Picture in the Academy's 98-year history, let alone won. The prediction model says the barrier is soft this year. The historical record says otherwise.

The Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim film, which documents Elizabeth Holmes before her prison sentence, has built its case on commercial and critical performance. It grossed $64.8 million in three weeks, holds a 96% critics' score on Rotten Tomatoes and a 98 on Metacritic. Its word-of-mouth climb, industry first and then general audiences, has drawn comparisons to the rise of Best Picture winner "Parasite." Comparisons are not ballots.

What precedent actually exists?

Documentaries have crossed over before, but never into the top race. Twelve documentaries earned Best Song nominations, four received Best Score nominations, and five landed in Best International Feature. Seven more surfaced in other main and technical categories: "With Byrd at South Pole" won Best Cinematography in 1930; "Woodstock" pulled double nominations for Best Sound and Best Film Editing in 1971; "Hoop Dreams" scored a Best Editing nod in 1995. Honorable mentions go back to "Chang: A Drama of the Wilderness" in 1929. The pattern shows voters occasionally look beyond the documentary branch when a film is acclaimed and popular. It has never produced a Best Picture nominee.

Who stands in the way?

Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" remains the front-runner, and its stature makes it difficult to dislodge. Gold Derby's current odds list "La Bola Negra," the festival-circuit dominator, as the closest challenger. "You Can See Everything" has climbed past expectations in recent weeks, but the model still treats the race as Nolan's to lose.

The recent Emmy sweep of "Widow's Bay" — which broke out of nowhere and beat early favorite "Hacks" — offers one analog for a late surge. Television and film voting bodies are not interchangeable.

What does the calendar change?

The path runs through critics first. The New York Film Critics Circle announces Dec. 1, the National Board of Review follows Dec. 2, and Critics Choice nominations arrive Dec. 4. Critics frequently split from Gold Derby odds, so wins over "The Odyssey" and "La Bola Negra" at the Big Four — NYFCC, LAFCA, the National Society of Film Critics, and NBR — are plausible. Critics Choice voters, who position themselves as Academy tastemakers, could deliver picture, director, and supporting actress nominations.

The guild stage narrows the route. As a documentary, the film cannot compete at the Golden Globes except in Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement, is barred from the actors' awards and the Writers Guild, and is limited to Best Documentary Film at the Directors Guild. "The Odyssey" will collect nominations across all of them.

Why the Producers Guild matters most

The Producers Guild Awards use the same preferential ballot as Best Picture — the only precursor that does — for the Darryl F. Zanuck Award. Cracking the PGA's 10 contenders would materially strengthen the Oscar bid. A win there would send the film into the Academy Awards, as the source puts it, "like a lightning bolt from Zeus." Greek metaphors do not count votes.

Beyond Best Picture, the film is a contender in seven more races: Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, Best Score, Best Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Sound, and Best Production Design. That package gives it breadth.

What does this change for the race? Nothing yet. An 82% nomination probability is a model's estimate, not a ballot. The film needs critics' prizes in December, a PGA result in January, and the first Best Picture nomination for a documentary in 98 years. Every one of those steps remains unproven.