Emily Blunt’s Best Awards Shot May Not Come at the Oscars

By Tom Whitfield

Gold Derby gives Emily Blunt an 85.7% projected chance of a Best Actress nomination for Disclosure Day at the Actor Awards, placing her fourth while her Oscar position remains outside the top 10.

Steven Spielberg’s action thriller casts Blunt as a TV meteorologist pulled into a mission to expose alien life. Gold Derby identifies the Actor Awards, rather than the Oscars, as her clearest nomination route.

How strong is Disclosure Day?

The film generated $116 million domestically and $247 million worldwide. Gold Derby calls it “one of the year’s most successful original movies”: it is not a sequel, remake or adaptation.

Rotten Tomatoes marks the Universal Pictures release “Certified Fresh” at 79% from 443 reviews. It has reached a brand-new audience on Peacock and other services, where it has streamed since Oct. 9.

The film gives voters a popular, well-reviewed original rather than a franchise release.

What does Blunt’s nomination record show?

Across decades, her sole Oscar nomination came for Oppenheimer (2023), after repeated bids at three precursor groups.

• Golden Globes: Seven film nominations cover The Devil Wears Prada (2006), The Young Victoria (2009), Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (2012), Into the Woods (2014), Mary Poppins Returns (2018), Oppenheimer and The Smashing Machine (2025). Her only Globe win came for the TV movie Gideon’s Daughter (2006).
• Actor Awards: Four individual film nominations cover The Girl on the Train (2016), Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place (2018) and Oppenheimer. She won for A Quiet Place, an outcome described as surprising. She also earned a TV nomination for The English (2022) and joined the Oppenheimer ensemble’s win.
• Critics Choice: Seven nominations cover The Young Victoria (2009), Looper (2012), Edge of Tomorrow (2014), Sicario (2015), Mary Poppins Returns in both lead actress and comedy actress, and Oppenheimer. She won for Edge of Tomorrow in the now-defunct action performance category.

Her nomination record is broad, but Oscar voters have repeatedly declined to extend it.

Why do the category rules matter?

The Golden Globes separate comedies and dramas, so twice as many leading contenders can score nominations each year. The Critics Choice Awards also used separate comedy and action categories, which accounts for most of Blunt’s seven nominations.

The Actor Awards match the Oscars: no genre designations, five lead slots and five supporting slots. SAG-AFTRA voters nominated Blunt in The Girl on the Train, Mary Poppins Returns and A Quiet Place, while Oscar voters passed over all three. Gold Derby reads that contrast as a more populist appetite among SAG-AFTRA voters.

SAG-AFTRA voters have shown more appetite for Blunt than Oscar voters have.

Where do the nomination odds stand?

Gold Derby rounds Blunt’s Actor Awards figure to 86% in its accompanying text and lists 85.7% in the table. The Golden Globes entry appears as 46% in the text and 45.5% in the table. She ranks fifth there and falls outside the Oscar top 10.

Actor Awards — Film Actress

Rank	Contender	Film	Odds
1	Julianne Moore	The Debut	100.0%
2	Olivia Wilde	The Invite	100.0%
3	Inde Navarrette	Obsession	85.7%
4	Emily Blunt	Disclosure Day	85.7%
5	Ruth Madeley	Being Heumann	57.1%
6	Sandra Hüller	Rose	14.3%

Golden Globes — Best Film Drama Actress

Rank	Contender	Film	Odds
1	Virginie Efira	All of a Sudden	100.0%
2	Renate Reinsve	Fjord	100.0%
3	Sandra Hüller	Rose	90.9%
4	Ruth Madeley	Being Heumann	90.9%
5	Emily Blunt	Disclosure Day	45.5%
6	Jeon Do-yeon	Possible Love	45.5%

Oscars — Best Actress

Rank	Contender	Film	Odds
1	Julianne Moore	The Debut	100.0%
2	Olivia Wilde	The Invite	88.5%
3	Inde Navarrette	Obsession	65.4%
4	Sandra Hüller	Rose	65.4%
5	Virginie Efira	All of a Sudden	50.0%
6	Renate Reinsve	Fjord	46.2%
7	Ruth Madeley	Being Heumann	38.5%
8	Sandra Hüller	Fatherland	11.5%
9	Rosalind Eleazar	Misty Green	7.7%
10	Marion Bailey	Tender Loving Care	7.7%

Blunt is a firm Actor Awards contender, a secondary Globe contender and an Oscar outsider.

When do nominations arrive?

Gold Derby lists four nomination-announcement dates: Critics Choice Awards on Dec. 4, Golden Globes on Dec. 7, Actor Awards on Jan. 6 and Oscars on Jan. 21.

Dec. 4 starts the sequence, and the Actor Awards result on Jan. 6 arrives before the Oscars on Jan. 21.