Focus Features has filled its October calendar with FYC screenings for "Obsession," the Curry Barker horror hit it acquired at the 2025 Toronto International Film Festival after a bidding war — and the campaign targets more than one statuette. The film enters the final two months of the year with Inde Navarrette locked into the Best Actress conversation and Best Picture sitting at the No. 10 slot on prognosticators' boards.

The studio's plan is concrete. Multiple Los Angeles-area screenings run through October, each followed by Q&As with cast, filmmaker and crafts team, moderated by directors including Karyn Kusama and Jason Reitman. Focus is also hosting a Happy Hour at Little Toni's Restaurant in Hollywood — the eatery where Navarrette's Nikki has her "Get Out"-echoing moment in the film.

Navarrette herself credits genre voters for the momentum. "It's because of the fans, and the horror fans specifically," she told Gold Derby during the campaign's press blitz. "It kind of just turned into a really big movement."

What does the campaign actually change?

Navarrette has held a Top 5 position on the experts-only Best Actress leaderboard since the predictions center opened. She remains on track even as Julianne Moore has built front-runner status on the fall festival run for Jesse Eisenberg's "The Debut." The comparison being whispered is Mikey Madison in 2025 — the out-of-nowhere nominee who converted. Whether Navarrette converts the same way is a separate question the leaderboard cannot answer.

The likelier near-term gain sits in Best Original Screenplay. The script ranks No. 4 in a category that historically rewards surprise hits from first-time filmmakers. But Focus treats "Obsession" as its own "Sinners," and here the claim strains: Barker's film does not currently show the below-the-line support that carried Ryan Coogler's film to a record 16 nominations. A Best Picture nod remains possible, not probable. If it lands, "Obsession" would join "The Odyssey," "Project Hail Mary" and presumably the unreleased "Dune: Part Three" as the only box-office heavyweights in the lineup — a relevant fact, since the last blockbuster Best Picture winner was Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" three years ago.

Can 'Whalefall' survive on craft alone?

Brian Duffield's aquatic survival thriller arrives Oct. 16 with diminished commercial expectations. The CinemaCon footage suggested a tentpole; the signs since then point the other way. An NYCC panel with Austin Abrams and Josh Brolin played to a half-filled Javits Center room, and Tuesday's Los Angeles premiere drew little celebrity turnout beyond K-pop's Taemin.

Media screenings on both coasts told a split story. Audiences engaged most with the "127 Hours"-style middle section, in which Abrams' character is battered by his first pass into the whale's gullet. The third act drew unintentional laughter instead of gasps. Chatter on Abrams and on Brolin's supporting turn ran largely positive regardless.

The craft categories are where the film lives. With "Avengers: Doomsday" and "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" splitting the superhero vote, "Whalefall" has climbed into the Top 5 for Best Visual Effects among expert predictors, alongside "The Odyssey," "Project Hail Mary," "Dune: Part Three" and "Godzilla Minus Zero." The effects, from Industrial Light & Magic and Wētā Workshop, blend practical and digital elements. Voters have a track record here: "Godzilla Minus One," "The Creator," "Ex Machina" and "District 9" all earned nominations or wins on lean VFX budgets. Joseph Trapanese's score sits low on the leaderboard, but the film ranks No. 6 for Best Sound.

Is 'Wicker' Black Bear's first real contender?

The third genre entry, "Wicker," carried the most Sundance buzz and still left Park City without a buyer until Black Bear picked it up. After "Christy," "In the Grey" and "The Rivals of Amziah King" moved neither the commercial nor the awards needle, this supernatural romance — with Olivia Colman, Peter Dinklage and Alexander Skarsgård, from writer-directors Alex Huston Fischer and Eleanor Wilson — gives the distributor its first plausible shot at both.

The craft case rests on a number: Wētā Workshop makeup artists Joe Dunckley and Sarah Rubano, also married, built a fully practical handwoven costume for Skarsgård reported at 50 interlocking parts. Notably, that has not translated into a Best Costume Design tracking position. The film instead ranks No. 5 in Best Makeup and Hairstyling, ahead of October rival "Clayface" — but behind the threat everyone in that category fears, Robert Eggers' "Werwulf," the follow-up to the craft-category sweep of 2024's "Nosferatu."

Black Bear stirs interest this weekend with an Los Angeles merch pop-up, anti-splinter kits included. A gimmick, yes. So was a handwoven suit with 50 parts, and that one is tracking. Money may not decide these races, but it has not hurt yet.